Fertility of rural China: effects of local family planning and health programs

The rationing of births in China after the 1979 announcement of the one-child family policy has been held responsible for the rapid decrease in Chinese fertility, whereas other observers have noted that parallel fertility declines occurred with voluntary behavior in other East and Southeast Asian countries. This paper assesses the joint contribution of local family planning and health programs, individual characteristics of women, and the development of their communities, as explanatory variables for Chinese fertility in rural areas of three provinces in 1985. Given the explicit quantitative reproductive goals of the government, an ordered Probit model for cumulative fertility is estimated for women age 15–34 and 35–49.The authors appreciate the comments on and corrections of our paper by John Ermisch and the programming assistance of Paul McGuire. The financial support of the Rockefeller Foundation is acknowledged.