金融危机的新趋向:资本的超量汇集与突然逆转

从 2 0世纪 90年代金融危机所呈现出的资本超量汇集与突然逆转情况看 ,现有的金融危机预警指标及预警机制理论是无法很好的对其进行合理解释的 ,因此 ,有必要重新审视资本全球流动条件下产生金融危机的新条件的可能性。考虑到利率在推动资本流动方面起着不可忽视的作用 ,分析吸引资本全球配置回报率可以发现 ,利率变化是吸引资本汇集于一国的主要因素。所以 ,资本的超量汇集尤其是引发动荡的超量汇集 ,是在实行固定汇率制度并开放资本市场形成的“二元冲突”条件下政府政策的必然结果。将资本的异常流动与经济过热提供的高回报联系起来 ,是今日中国预防金融危机的首要选择。

A New Trend for Financial Crisis:Excess of Capital Inflows and Reversal

It is impossible to use the existing financial crisis warning index and mechanism to explain well enough the financial crisis in 1990's, which manifested the excess of capital inflows and reversal. It gives the task for us to review the conditions of the financial crisis under the capital globalization. We can find that the return rates pushing the capital global allocation is also the fundamental factor for drawing capital inflows. The excess of capital inflows, especially those aroused the turbulence, is the result of the policy by government under the open-capital market with the fixed exchange rate. It is an important method for China to prevent financial crisis to connect the capital flows with the high returns under the overheated economic growth.