高耗能行业电力消费长期波动效应研究

为研究电力消费与影响因素之间的互动关系与因素波动冲击产生的响应持续效果，本文以高耗能行业电力消费为研究对象，从宏观经济层面与行业微观层面出发，以我国1985年-2009年为分析区间，应用SVAR模型对高耗能行业电力消费与宏微观影响变量的动态关系进行分析，并通过GIRF分析了宏微观变量与电力消费冲击产生的双向动态响应，利用VD技术分析了变量波动对电力消费的贡献率。结果表明：我国高耗能用电与GDP、行业产值、行业投资存在长期波动效应，外生变量城市化水平、投资结构与电力消费的相关程度不高；电力消费与GDP存在明显的长期效应，高耗能行业电力消费对产值冲击的响应大于行业投资额的冲击。行业微观变量对电力消费波动贡献相对突出。

Long-term Fluctuation Effect of Electricity Consumption in Energy-Intensive Industries

To analyze the interaction and continuing impact of impulse response between factors and electricity consumption, electricity consumption of energy-intensive industries is studied from combination of macroeconomic and microcosmic level, and SVAR model is applied to analyze dynamic relationship between electricity consumption and micro-macro variables based on times series data from 1985 to 2009. Through GIRF, the two-way dynamic effects generated by the shock of macro and micro variables and electricity consumption are also explained.Further,through the application of VD technology, the contribution rate of electricity consumption is estimated as structural impact from variables fluctuations. The results of this paper indicate that firstly,long-term fluctuation effect exists between China's energy-intensive electricity consumption and GDP, industrial output value and investment.Secondly, external variables, the investment structure, the level of urbanization, are not highly related to electricity consumption, which has obvious long-term effect on GDP. At last, as rigid variable of inner energy-intensive industry sector, the impact on electricity consumption by investment is weaker than output, though there is a certain continuity. The contributions of microeconomic variables are relatively prominent to the changes of electricity consumption.