政策冲击影响下中国能源消费预测分析及控制策略

本文运用缓冲算子和灰色GM（1，1）模型，对中国能源消费总量和单位GDP能耗进行了模拟和预测，在能源消费预测结果的基础上，构建了两种控制策略模型，并以中国单位GDP能耗预测为例进行了算例分析。研究结果表明，灰色模型较好地模拟和预测了中国能源消费总量和单位GDP能耗。中国在“十二五”期间的节能潜力很大，能顺利完成能源消费总量的指标。“十二五”安全控制策略为[0.48，1），即国家在“十二五”期间的控制力度应调整为“十一五”控制力度的0.48~1倍之间。

Forecasting Analysis of Chinese Energy Consumption and Control Strategy under Policy Impact

In this paper, buffer operator and grey GM(1,1)model are introduced to simulate and forecast the total energy consumption and energy consumption per GDP. Two kinds of control policy models based on energy consumption forecasting are established and Chinese energy consumption per GDP is selected as an example. The research shows that the grey model has well simulated and forecasted the total energy consumption and energy consumption per GDP.China has a great potential to save energy in the twelfth five-year period and can achieve the target of energy consumption successfully. The safe control policy is [0.48,1),which means that the government should adjust the control of the twelfth five-year period to 0.48~1 time the one of the eleventh period.