基于复杂网络演化博弈的传统产业集群低碳演化模型研究

本文基于复杂网络演化博弈理论,从微观异质性主体的预期学习和自适应行为特征出发,综合运用随机博弈及博弈学习模型、多主体系统建模等方法,构建了传统产业集群低碳演化模型,并进行了产业低碳策略竞争、涌现和不同演化情景的仿真分析。研究表明,产业集群的复杂网络结构、主体的异质性预期和决策行为对集群低碳策略的涌现有着重要影响;要想在集群内推广应用新的低碳策略,集群异质性主体的低碳偏好、集群复杂网络的外部效应、低碳策略的采用成本和技术兼容性是重要影响因素。

Research on Low-Carbon Evolutionary Model of Traditional Industrial Clusters Based on Evolutionary Games Theory on Complex Networks

Based on evolutionary games theory on complex networks, from the perspective of clusters' microscopic heterogeneous agents, considering the characteristics of agents' expected learning behavior and adaptive behavior, a traditional industrial low-carbon evolution model by using the random game, learning model and multi-agent system simulation methods are established. The scenario simulations about low-carbon strategy competition,emergence and evolution are carried out. The results show that structure of complex network, heterogeneous expectation and decision behavior of agents are significant to low-carbon strategy's emission. The key factors to spread the new strategy are heterogeneity agents' low-carbon preference, network' external effect, cost and technological compatibility of strategy.