Markov机制转换的状态空间模型及其在我国经济周期中的应用研究

 经济周期具有机制转换的特点，而传统的状态空间模型很难解决像具有机制转换特点的此类问题。为此，本文将Markov机制转换模型运用到状态空间模型中，并对我国经济周期进行了分析研究，实证结果表明Markov机制转换的状态空间模型，较好地刻画了我国经济周期的非对称性特征，从中得出一个重要的结论：政府的宏观调控政策会对我国经济产生正向的冲击，宏观调控是有效的。

Research on State-space Models with Markov Switching:An Application on China's Business Cycle

Business cycle has the characteristics of markov switching,whereas the traditional state-space models are difficult to resolve the issue of characteristics of markov switching. So in this paper we apply markov switching to state-space models and analyze China's business cycle. The empirical results show that state-space models with markov switching portray the non-symmetry characteristics of China's business cycle better. And we can draw an important conclusion that the government's macro-control policy has...