西部民族地区经济增长与就业能力同步提升研究

在劳动力需求函数的基础上,利用省级面板数据对西部民族地区经济增长与就业关系进行了实证分析。实证分析主要从两个维度展开,一是根据是否考虑就业规模的滞后效应分为动态分析和静态分析;二是根据选区时间段的不同,进行纵向比较。结果显示:虽然产出的就业弹性统计显著,但弹性值在0.1左右,西部民族地区存在失业型增长的可能性;真实工资对就业并无显著负效应;固定资产投资、政府预算支出、进出口、社会消费品零售总额对就业影响不显著;FDI对就业作用在经历了最初的负效应之后,开始呈现正效应的趋势,但弹性值还较小。因此,西部民族地区失业型增长已经发生,但仅依赖宏观经济均衡不足以解决就业压力的挑战。实际上,在保持可持续增长政策的同时,还应将战略转向就业密集型和推动型。这可以通过大量投资的持续增加和再定位来实现。这些投资无论是FDI,还是固定资产投资,应该指向就业推动型和劳动密集型的活动。

A Research on Promoting the Economic Growth and Employment Ability in Western Ethnic Region

With the implementation of the Economic Reforms and Openness Policy together with the carrying out of the Western Development Strategy, the economic situation in the western ethnic regions has greatly improved. However, while the economy has grown vigorously, the employment situation in the western ethnic regions has not been so optimistic. From 2000 to 2009, the annual economic growth rate in the western regions was above 10%, however, the employment growth rate was only 1.5%. Hence, the average gap between average annual GRP growth and employment growth was 12.1%. This large gap between production and employment growth implies that there is the possibility of jobless growth in the western ethnic regions. On the one hand, the western ethnic regions are facing considerable employment pressure, and on the other hand, there is the possibility of jobless growth within its economic growth. Moreover, there are a series of imbalances within the labor market. Because the cost of cross-regional transfer of local labor force has increased, and the shift of employment has become more difficult, the action of promoting the innovation capacity of the local labor force has become a relatively realistic choice. The action of improving local employment capability first needs to clarify whether economic growth in the past has effectively promoted employment. This requires an empirical analysis of the relationship between employment creation and the main macroeconomic variables in the western ethnic regions. In addition, it requires investigating the impact of macroeconomic variables, such as the regional gross value of production, fixed investment, wages, imports and exports, foreign direct investment, and the total volume of retail sales of consumption goods etc., on partial employment. This article analyses the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and employment capacity in the western ethnic regions since 1978.