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On the maximum population size of a modernized China from the perspective of food resources]
Authors:J Song  Y Sun
Abstract:The yearly per capita amounts of protein consumption between China, France, Japan, and the US are compared. Based on human dietary protein requirements and using quantitative methods and a mathematical model, the maximum population that can be supported by China's 9.6 million sq km of land after 2000 is calculated. The mathematical equation used is: ZGB + DBG = H; where ZGB is the ratio of plant protein over total protein required by the body consumed per unit time, and DGB is the ratio of animal protein over total protein required by the body consumed per unit time. H 1 means an excessive, H = 1 a balanced, and H 1 a deficient protein supply. Based on an average per capita daily energy requirement of 2,272 kcal, ZGB, DGB, and H are calculated for China, France, Japan and the US. The values between China and the US represent the extremes, with ZGB = 0.5776, DGB = 0.0813, and H = 0.6589 for China and ZGB = 0.2559, DGB = 0.8266, and H = 1.0825 for the US. Under the same conditions of land mass and unit production, the larger the H and DGB, the smaller a population that can be sustained. Conversely, the smaller the H and DGB, the larger the population that can be sustained. Using the values calculated by this equation, in order for China to attain a dietary level within 100 years comparable to that of the current US level, the Chinese population would have to be controlled to a size of about 680 million. A mathematical model for a balanced diet is given as an appendix.
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