2023年国际原油价格分析与趋势预测

2022年，全球经济增速放缓，各种超预期因素引发原油供给担忧，国际油价大幅攀升并剧烈波动。展望2023年，从基本面和非基本面着手，分析全球经济、供应、库存、美元、黄金、市场投机和地缘政治等因素未来动向，结合预测模型客观计算和专家的主观判断，对2023年国际原油价格走势进行整体展望和预测。预计2023年国际原油价格中枢回落，市场供需偏紧，地缘政治因素持续扰动，短期不确定性较大，Brent、WTI原油均价将在82～92美元/桶和77～87美元/桶。

Analysis and Forecasting of International Crude Oil Price in 2023

In 2022, the global economy slowed down and various over-expected factors triggered crude oil supply concerns. The international oil price climbed sharply and fluctuated dramatically. Looking ahead to 2023, from the perspective of fundamentals and non-fundamentals, in the paper the future trends of the global economy, crude oil supply, inventory, the dollar, gold, future market and geopolitics were analyzed, and the objective calculation of the forecasting model and the subjective judgment of the experts were combined to forecast the international crude oil price trend in 2023. The average international crude oil price is expected to decline in 2023, with tight market supply and demand, continued disturbance of geopolitical factors, and high short-term uncertainty. The average price of Brent and WTI crude oil is expected to reach 82~92 USD/barrel and 77~87 USD/barrel.