中国能源经济指数演进及趋势预测

疫情防控进入新阶段，国际国内环境复杂多变，在能源经济高质量转型关键阶段，需要基于行业视角建立全面科学的指标体系来评估和监测能源经济发展进程。以15个关键能源子行业为研究主体，建立包含宏观经济环境、中观产业发展和微观企业表现三层次指标体系，在测算能源子行业实际经济动态的基础上，采用BP神经网络方法对2023年短期能源行业的安全保供、高质量转型趋势以及投资热点进行预估和研判。实证结果表明，2022年中国能源经济稳步回升，2023年宏观经济和能源经济走势向好，预测可回归至2019年水平。短期内，光伏发电行业和风力发电行业具有高行业质量、高股票指数等综合优势，可作为优先投资对象。长期而言，电网自控设备行业指数平稳提升，具有投资潜力。2023年能源供给需求预计反弹，火力和水力发电传统能源行业仍是保供主力，需激发系统调节新价值。能源行业整体需保障能源安全稳定供应，抓住宏观经济复苏机会，快速升级，反哺国家经济振兴。

Evolution and Trend Forecast of Energy Economic Index in China

In the post-COVID-19 era, the international and domestic environment is complex and volatile. At the critical stage of high-quality transformation of the energy economy, it is necessary to establish a comprehensive and scientific indicator system based on the industry perspective to evaluate and monitor the development process of the energy economy. In this study, 15 key energy sub-industries were taken as research subjects, and a three-level index system including macroeconomic environment, medium industrial development and micro enterprise performance was established. On the basis of calculating the actual economic dynamics of energy sub-industries, BP neural network method was used to predict and evaluate the security supply, high-quality transformation trend and investment hot spots of the short-term energy industry in 2023. The empirical results show that China’s energy economy rebounded steadily in 2022, and the macroeconomic and energy economy trends will improve in 2023, and is forecasted to return to the level of 2019. In the short term, photovoltaic power generation industry and wind power generation industry have comprehensive advantages such as high industry quality and high stock index, which can be used as priority investment targets. In the long run, the industry index of power grid automatic control equipment has been steadily improved, which has investment potential. The demand for energy supply is expected to rebound in 2023, and the traditional energy industry of thermal power and hydropower generation is still the main force to ensure supply, so it is necessary to stimulate the system to adjust new values. The energy industry as a whole needs to ensure the safe and stable supply of energy, seize the opportunity of macroeconomic recovery, to upgrade rapidly, and back-feed national economic revitalization.