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Effects of fiscal policy on the U.S. economy: Empirical estimates of crowding out
Authors:Darrel Cohen  
Institution:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, USA;International Monetary Fund, USA
Abstract:This study examines the short-and intermediate-run effects of a permanent reduction in U.S. personal income taxes on interest rates, output, prices, exchange rates, and the current account, holding government spending and money growth fixed. The theoretical analysis suggests that interest rates and domestic consumption will rise but that net exports and interest-sensitive expenditures will fall. Also, the foreign currency value of the dollar will rise except possibly when output increases due to positive supply-side effects or to elimination of unemployment. These theoretical conclusions are essentially confirmed by simulations using the Federal Reserve Board's MPS quarterly econometric model and its multicountry model.
Keywords:Address correspondence to Dr  Darrel Cohen  Federal Reserve System  Division of Research and Statistics  Washington  D  C  20551  USA  
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