武汉市房价与地价关系的实证研究

本文以武汉市2001年至2007年的商品房销售季度价格指数和土地交易季度价格指数为样本通过平稳性检验、协整关系检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,对房价和地价之间的关系进行了实证分析,得出了短期内房价和地价具有互动关系、长期内房价决定地价的结论。因此,要因地制宜地制定土地供给政策,以期达到统筹兼顾土地市场和房地产市场,促进各级市场之间良性互动和协同可持续发展的目标。

The Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between House Price and Land Price in Wuhan

This paper makes an empirical analysis of the interrelationship between the housing price and land price, taking the quarter sales of commercial housing price index and land transactions price index of the year 2001-2007 as sample.Through unit root test, cointegration test and Granger Test, it is concluded that the interaction exists between housing price and land price in short term, and house price affects the land price in the long term. Therefore, in order to achieve the objective of balancing the land market and real estate market and promote the positive interaction and sustainable development of the market at all levels, the land-supply policies should be made in line with local conditions.