Tavern proximity,tavern density and socio-economic status as predictors of assault occurrence within New Zealand: a temporal comparison

This paper investigates how the associations between tavern proximity, tavern density and area unit socio-economic status with assault occurrence vary in a temporal sense. Using New Zealand Police data specifying the day, time and location of assaults in 2016 and Ministry of Justice data specifying the location of on-licenced taverns, we construct logistic regression models to determine how well tavern proximity, tavern density and socio-economic status predict the occurrence of assaults at peak (Fri 22:00–Sat 03:00 and Sat 22:00–Sun 03:00) and off-peak times. An equal-sized sample of traffic generators (public venues whose primary function is not the sale of alcohol) is constructed and similar procedures applied. We find that tavern proximity and tavern density are stronger predictors of assault occurrence at peak, compared to off-peak, times. Conversely, socio-economic status is a better predictor of assault occurrence at off-peak times. We also find that whilst tavern proximity and density are stronger predictors of assault occurrence relative to traffic generator proximity and density at peak times, the opposite is true at off-peak times. These results suggest that in order to minimise alcohol-related harm, there is a need for policy-makers to take into account the temporal nature of these relationships.