从资源枯竭之忧到资源再生之虑:碳排放研究述评

人们对资源的忧虑,经历了一个转变过程,由可耗竭资源的有限储量所带来的紧迫感趋淡,由生态承载力的衰减所引发的负面后果日益明显。从二氧化碳排放所引出的气候变化问题,是自然生态系统容纳和消除污染排放物的能力已然不足的一个反映。通过对贯穿上述认识转变过程的经济学研究文献的梳理可知,国外在此方向上的主要分析工具是气候变化综合评估模型。该类模型的优点是把经济系统与自然生态系统集成在一起,使得对碳排放的预测具有微观基础,但也因模型复杂而处理难度较高。它的一个应用是:碳减排力度是应立即强力推进,还是可渐进强化,研究文献中围绕这一问题的争论就是以气候变化综合评估模型为基础而展开的。

From the Anxieties about Resource Depletion to the Perspective of Resource Regeneration： A Survey on the Economics Analysis of Carbon Emissions

The worries about resources experience a transition process.The sense of urgency arising from the limited volume of non-renewable resources becomes gradually weak,while the negative consequences,resulted from the attenuation of carrying capacity of the ecological system,are becoming more and more obvious.The issue of climate change induced from carbon dioxide emissions reflects that the earth can’t absorb quickly enough or accommodate spaciously enough so many pollutions and emissions.This paper provides a survey on those economic researches running through the transition progress mentioned above.It also provides a brief introduction by an example about the mainstream analysis tool for carbon reduction: integrated assessment models for climate change(IAM).The main advantage of IAMs is that they integrate economic system with ecosystem,whick makes prediction of future carbon emissions on micro-foundations.The major disadvantage of IAMs is that they are complex and hard to construct and handle.An application of IAM is about the question of whether optimal carbon reductions should be put forward strongly or be strengthened gradually.It is IAMs that various judgments on this matter are based on.