我国消费、投资、出口与物流发展动态关系研究

选取我国消费、投资、出口与物流发展表征指标，以1980～2012年时间序列数据为研究样本；利用Granger因果关系检验分析消费、投资、出口与物流发展间存在的内在联系；根据HP滤波法将各指标分为三阶段，即平稳发展期、波动显著期、调整过渡期；基于偏最小二乘法构建消费、投资、出口对物流发展三子周期的贡献测度模型。结果表明：在不同时期消费、投资、出口对物流业的产出弹性变化不一，与投资、出口的不稳定性相比，物流对消费的依赖性保持着持续上升的趋势。

A Study on the Dynamic Relationship between Consumption,Investment,Export and Logistics Development

This paper studies the indicators of consumption ,investment ,export and logistics development from 1980 to 2012 and their intrinsic relationship with the method of Granger causality test .These indica-tors are analyzed in three stages by Hodrick Prescott filter ,namely stationary phase ,fluctuation period , and transitional period .The study also constructs a measure model of the contribution of consumption ,in-vestment ,and export to the three sub_cycles of logistics development based on partial least squares .It is found that the output elasticity of consumption ,investment ,and export to logistics varies at different peri-ods of time .It is also proved that ,compared with instability of investment and export ,logistics’ depen-dence on consumption maintains a sustained increase .The findings provide a scientific guide for the govern-ment and the enterprises to take measures enhancing the three economic driving forces ’ contribution to lo-gistics output .