GA-灰色神经网络的区域物流需求预测

区域物流需求与区域经济发展水平密切相关,影响区域物流需求的经济因素包括区域经济的规模、产业结构、购买力和网络购物人数。以货运量作为物流需求的内容,选取福建省1997—2009年的经济数据作为面板数据,采用基于遗传算法的灰色神经网络模型对福建省区域物流进行预测。实证结果表明:网上购物水平是影响区域物流需求量的一个重要因素;组合预测模型较单一预测模型具有更好的预测效果;未来几年内福建省物流需求将呈上升态势。实证结果为区域物流需求预测提供了有益的参考。

Grey BP Neural Networks Model based on GA and Its Application in Regional Logistics Demand Forecasting

Regional logistics demand is closely related with the regional economic development level.The scale of area economy,the industrial structure,purchasing power and the number of Internet shopping are major economic factors which influence regional logistics demands.This paper chooses the freight volume as the content of logistics demand.Selecting the economic data of Fujian province in 1997—2009 as a panel data and using the grey neural network model based on the genetic algorithm to predict the regional logistics of Fujian province.The empirical results show that:online shopping level is an important influence factor for regional logistics demand;combination forecast model has better prediction effect than single forecasting model;Logistics Demand in Fujian province is on the rise the next few years.The empirical results provide instructive suggestions for the regional logistics demand forecast.