高教园区大学生群体危机干预演化模型——以北京市高教园区为例

针对高教园区大学生群体危机的干预问题,利用仿真模型研究危机干预的动态演化。利用北京市高教园区实证数据为模型赋初值,从“干预因子灵敏度分析、干预因子变动分析”等方面进行模型拟检验。运用模型进行应用研究,认为:一是危机干预能力增长呈现滞后性,必须提前实施危机干预;二是应保持政府与高校的危机干预强度,政府干预应着重做好基础设施建设,高校干预应着重于学习环境建设,形成共振效应,增强干预效果;三是政府与高校危机干预强度不应同时波动,以避免危机干预能力下行风险;四是政府与高校的协同干预,应着重大学生的情感因素与心理因素的治理。

Evolution Model of Mass Undergraduate Crisis in Zone of Tertiary Education-Case Study of Zone of Tertiary Education in Beijing

Aiming to the crisis intervention of mass undergraduate crisis(MUC) in zone of tertiary education,a simulation model is presented here.Initial value for the model is given from empirical survey from zone of tertiary education in Beijing,and then simulation model is verified from four aspects.The following conclusions are obtained: first,capability of crisis intervention present hysteretic characteristics,so it should be done in advance;second,intensity of crisis intervention in government and university should be retained at the same time,in which intervention of government should focus on infrastructure construction,and intervention of universities should focus on learning environment construction,to strengthen the effectiveness of intervention;third,intensity of crisis intervention in government and university shouldn’t be fluctuated simultaneously to avoid rapid reduction of capability of crisis intervention;fourth,collaborative crisis intervention should be done by government and university to emphasize students’ emotional factors and psychological factors.