| 基于Monte Carlo法的飞行器风险动态分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁常宏,邓忠民.基于Monte Carlo法的飞行器风险动态分析[J].中国管理科学,2008(Z1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁常宏 邓忠民 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京航空航天大学宇航学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 项目技术风险评估方法研究 |
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| 摘 要： | 飞行器研制项目具有时间周期长,研制费用高,风险大的特点,需要对项目进行整个周期内的动态综合管理。本文在Markov假设基础上,分阶段研究风险状态,并利用Monte Carlo仿真,计算出风险变化趋势。本方法利用有限的评估数据与历史数据,计算出风险转移强度,动态地评估了风险的发展变化。通过实例证明转移矩阵能够准确描述风险的发展变化且与实例情况相吻合。
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| 关 键 词： | 飞行器研制项目 风险评估 马尔可夫过程 Monte Carlo仿真 |
Dynamic Analysis of Risk in Aircraft Research Project Based on Monte Carlo Method |
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| DING Chang-hong,DENG Zhong-min.Dynamic Analysis of Risk in Aircraft Research Project Based on Monte Carlo Method[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2008(Z1). |
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| Authors: | DING Chang-hong DENG Zhong-min |
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| Institution: | DING Chang-hong,DENG Zhong-min (School of Astronautics,Beijing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics,Beijing 100191,China) |
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| Abstract: | The risk of aircraft research project has character of long term,high cost and risk.It is necessary to dynamically manage risk during the whole project cycle.Based on Markov assumption,risk status in every stage is analyzed and risk trend is calculated with Monte Carlo method.The limited assessment and history data are utilized farthest to calculate transfer intensity of risk and development of risk was given through dynamic analysis in this paper. The example was presented to prove that transfer matrix can... |
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| Keywords: | aircraft research project risk assessment Markov process Monte Carlo simulation |
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