进口贸易对中国经济增长贡献的实证分析

长期以来,中国出口导向型战略使国内很多学者低估了进口贸易在经济增长中的作用.对我国1978～2006年的进口贸易与国内生产总值两个时间序列进行协整分析表明,二者之间存在着长期稳定的动态均衡关系;并基于误差修正模型的因果关系检验得出进口贸易对经济增长具有促进作用.其促进作用体现在缓解资源约束、弥补国内供给、刺激技术创新、诱导国内需求、完善市场机制及扩大出口规模六个方面.为此,中国应尽快调整外贸发展战略,积极扩大进口规模,优化进口结构,促进国民经济更快、更好地发展.

The Positive Analysis of the Contribution of Import to China's Economic Growth

The contribution of import to economical growth has long been ignored because of China''s export oriented strategy. Co integration test of import and GDP from 1978-2006 shows a long stable dynamic balance between the two data. Causality test based on error correction model suggests that import trade promotes economic growth. The contribution of import to economical growth can be seen from six aspects, namely, easing resource constraints, offsetting short domestic supply, stimulating technical innovation, inducing domestic demand, improving market mechanism, and expanding the scale of export. Therefore, the researcher puts forward suggestions that China should adjust trade development strategy, expand import, optimize import structures, and promote faster, better growth of national economy.