租住家庭占比、租房供应主体与房价

近年来政府大力推动“租购并举”以缓解大城市不断上涨的房价压力，但住房租赁体系发展是否能达到抑制房价的效果，这种效应与租房供应主体的关系又是什么样的，在国内外都还并没有直接的相关实证研究。本文综合国家统计局城镇住户调查大样本微观数据及城市层面统计数据组成的面板数据，在地级市层面实证考察了住房租赁部门发展对房价的影响效应，重点考察租房供应主体在这种效应中的作用。包含纠正内生性偏误在内的系列计量分析结果都一致性显示，我国城市居民家庭中的租住家庭占比与当地房价之间存在显著的负向关联。进一步从住房租赁供应主体结构来看，一个城市租赁供应中市场化比重越高，则该城市租住家庭占比与房价的负向关联越强。本文的研究发现具有较强的政策含义，表明推行“租购并举”，不仅应关注租售结构本身，还应加强租房供应主体的多元化，尤其要注意充分发挥市场机制在租赁住房供应中的主导性作用。

Tenant Share of Families,Supply Structure of Rental Housing and Housing Price

In recent years, the Chinese government promotes "rent-purchase equilibrium" to ease the pressure of skyrocketing housing prices in big cities. However, there are no empirical researches related to how the development of rental housing sector would affect housing prices. Based on a panel data combining the UHS (urban household survey) micro-data and city-level aggregate data, this paper empirically examines the impact of tenant share of urban families on city-level housing prices and focus on the role of supply structure in this impact. A series of econometric analysis with corrections of endogenous bias show that there is a significant negative correlation between the tenant share of urban families and local housing prices. Further investigation shows that, the higher market-oriented of rental housing supply, the stronger is the negative correlation between the tenant share of families and housing price. The findings of this study have rich policy implications. When promoting the development of the rental housing market, not only the housing tenure structure itself matters, but also the supply structure of rental housing sector cares.