印度对中印跨境河流水关系的认知及战略选择

近年来,印度对中印在跨境河流水关系中的不平衡问题非常重视.其中,水文信息不对称以及收益不平衡是印度对水关系不平衡的两个主要认知.基于中印边境的互动历史,印度在对水关系的认知形成中往往会夸大中国的敌意与威胁.据此,印度试图通过建立制度框架、将中印水争议国际化以及竞争性开发跨境河流水资源的战略思维,平衡中国在雅鲁藏布江—布拉马普特拉河水关系中的优势地位.然而受水外交两面性特征和内政的掣肘,印度平衡战略的影响有限,而且更强化了其对雅鲁藏布江—布拉马普特拉河战略安全收益的重视,并使未来中印双方基于水资源共同利益进行合作的难度加大.

India's Perception of and Strategy Options regarding Sino-India Transboundary Water Issues

In recent years,India has become very attentive to the issue of asymmetry in its relations with China over transboundary water issues.More specifically,Indian concerns are related to two perceived issues:asymmetric information around hydrological data,and an imbalance in terms of water benefit allocation.Given the dynamic history of border relations between the two countries.India’s understanding of its relations with China over water issues tends towards the expansion of feelings of hostility and sense of threat.As such.India attempts to balance against Chinese dominance in the Yarlung Tsangpo River/the Brahmaputra River by establishing an institutional framework,seeking to internationalize the conflict between China and India over water issues,while also adopting a strategy of competition when it comes to the development of water resources.While so.India’s stance is constrained by its domestic politics,as well as partisanship over its foreign policy with respect to water issues.As such,the impact of India’s balancing strategy is limited,and as a result,this causes it to place more emphasis on strategic benefits vis-d-vis the Yarlung Tsangpo River/the Brahmaputra River.Looking into the future,this will further complicate efforts towards win-win cooperation between China and India over water resources.