中美日印对中南半岛国家影响力的测度与分析

制衡中国在中南半岛国家的影响力是美国、日本、印度等域外大国介入中南半岛国家事务的主要战略目标.科学合理地测度中国和域外大国在中南半岛国家影响力的变化,既是对中国崛起所处地缘环境准确认识的需要,也是中国周边地缘关系研究的重要议题.本文基于国家间实力比例关系和不对称依赖关系,构建了国家对外影响力模型,定量测度了2000~2018年中美日印四国对中南半岛国家影响力.研究结果表明:第一,中国对中南半岛国家影响力呈持续上升趋势,美国和日本总体上呈下降趋势,印度相对稳定;第二,中国对老挝和缅甸的影响力在2012年和2016年均出现了下降,同时期的美国、日本和印度对老挝和缅甸的影响力并没有提升,表明中国与美日印对中南半岛国家影响力变化并不存在“我降—你升”的逻辑关系;第三,美日印三国在体系和战略层面给中国对外影响力带来了一些压力,在中南半岛国家层面上对中国影响力提升的影响有限;第四,国家间实力地位高低是决定国家对外影响力大小的主导因素,不对称依赖中获得的影响力大小是决定国家对外影响力大小的制约因素.

Influence on the Indo-China Peninsula:A Comparison of China,the US,Japan and India

The primary strategic objectives of the United States.Japan.India and other states from outside the region on the Indo-China Peninsula is to balance against Chinese influence.Objectively assessing changes in Chinese influence and the influence of extra-regional powers on the Indo-China Peninsula is critical for understanding the geo-political environment within which China is making its rise.It is also an important research question around China's relations with its neighboring countries.This article creates a model of a state’s external influence based on measures of comparative state power and asymmetric dependence.It uses this model to quantitatively assess the influence of China,the United States.Japan,and India vis-dvis the states of the Indo-China Peninsula from the years 2000 to 2018.The findings of the study illustrate that:(1)China’s influence in the Indo-China Peninsula has consistently grown during this period.American and Japanese influence have declined,and Indian influence has remained stable:(2)during the research period,China’s influence in Laos and Myanmar declined in 2012 and 2016.but the influence of the US.Japan and India in these countries did not increase during these same years.This demonstrates that a zero-sum logic of one state increasing influence at the expense of another state does not follow when it comes to China,the US,Japan and India in the Indo-China peninsula:(3)the US.Japan and India have created significant pressure for China both within international institutions as well as at the strategic level through their use of foreign influence,however within the Indo-China Peninsula,this has only had limited impact on China’s increasing influence:(4)the primary factor influencing a state’s level of foreign influence is that state’s position with respect to comparative state power.The level of influence gained through asymmetric dependence is a limiting factor when it comes to the extent of a state’s external influence.