住房财富效应与居住模式对适龄人群生育意愿的影响研究

在城市住房价格居高不下与生育率持续走低的背景下,文章通过OLS模型,采用CGSS2018年调查数据和2017年城市房价数据,研究住房财富效应与居住模式对适龄人群生育意愿的影响。结果表明:住房的财富效应对适龄生育人群生育意愿具有正向促进作用;核心家庭相较于主干家庭的生育意愿较低;核心家庭偏向生育女孩,主干家庭偏向生育男孩。通过工具变量法进行检验,结果仍然稳健。建议加大保障性住房供给,重塑主干家庭,鼓励代际同居,以提高适龄人群的生育意愿。

The Influence of Housing Wealth Effects and Residence Patterns on Fertility Intentions of Age-appropriate Population

Under the background of high housing prices and continuously low fertility rate, the influence of housing wealth effect and housing pattern on the fertility willingness of people of appropriate age was studied by OLS model using CGSS 2018 survey data and 2017 urban housing price data. Studies have shown that the positive wealth effect of housing has a promoting effect on the fertility willingness of people of appropriate age; Nuclear families have lower fertility intentions than stem families; The nuclear family favors the birth of girls, while the stem family prefers to have boys. Tested by the instrumental variable method, the results remain robust. It is proposed to increase the supply of affordable housing, reshape the backbone family, and encourage intergenerational cohabitation to improve the willingness of the age-appropriate population to have children.