我国小麦期货价格影响因素实证分析

分析我国小麦期货价格的影响因素，有利于更好地预测小麦期货价格，更充分地发挥价格发现和风险规避功能，促使政府制定更合理的经济政策，帮助市场参与者更理性地进行投资、买卖及风险管理。收集2006—2010年的数据，运用最小二乘法进行回归分析，并采用平稳性检验法、协整检验法等方法，得出小麦期货价格受现货价格、国内小麦收成状况、小麦国内外供需情况、国家经济政策、国际形势及气候影响的结论，据此提出相应建议。

Empirical analysis on influencing factors of wheat futures price in China

To analyze the influencing factors of wheat futures price in China is conducive to better predict wheat futures price,which will give full play to price discovery and risk avoidance capabilities,promote the government constituting more rational economic policy,and help the market participants more rationally investing,trading and managing risk.The data from 2006 to 2010 are collected,the least squares method is applied to run regression analysis,and the stationarity test and cointegration test methods are adopted.The conclusions are that the wheat futures price is influenced by the spot price,the harvest situation of wheat in China,the supply and demand situation both home and abroad,the economic policy of China,the international situation,and the climate.Countermeasures are also proposed at last.