基于SVAR模型的房价波动与银行信贷实证分析

从近年来我国房价大幅波动以及政府出台的一系列为防止泡沫风险的不断累积的银行信贷政策着手,构建结构向量自回归模型(SVAR),并通过脉冲响应及方差分解进行实证分析,研究房价波动与银行信贷之间的关系.认为:无论长期还是短期,银行信贷规模与房价波动都是相互推动、互为因果的;利率通过对信贷规模的影响间接地影响房价;不同变量之间的影响存在时滞.因此,在实施信贷政策对房价进行调控时应注意时滞问题,并增加房地产行业的融资渠道以规避风险.

An empirical analysis of the relationship of housing price fluctuation and bank credit based on the SVAR model

Considering the house price fluctuations and the fact that government issued a series of bank credit policy recently,which is to prevent the steady accumulation ofbubble risk,the paper buildsan econometric SVAR model to study the relationship between price volatility and bank credit.Through analyzing the result of impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,we conclude that the bank credit and real estate prices will push each other no matter long-term and short-term,and rising interest rates,to a certain extent,will influence the credit quota,then the house price would be influenced,but there is a time delay between each variable to affect others.So the delay problems should be paid attention to when the credit policy implemented to control property prices,and increasing the financing channel for real estate industry.