Leading Indicators for the Service Sector |
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| Authors: | Allan P Layton Geoffrey H Moore |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Economics , University of Queensland , Brisbane , Queensland , 4067 , Australia;2. Center for International Business Cycle Research, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University , New York , NY , 10027 |
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| Abstract: | Since the service sector currently accounts for a large and growing share of U.S. economic activity, we have undertaken to develop indicators that throw light on its current status and future prospects. A composite coincident index of aggregate economic activity in the service sector is constructed, and a growth-cycle chronology is identified based on growth rates in this index and in its components. Then several macroeconomic leading indicators of service are identified, and from them a composite leading index is constructed. The growth rate in this index is found to give advance warnings of major swings in the growth of the service sector. |
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| Keywords: | Forecasting Growth cycles Service industries |
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