婚姻状态对老年人死亡概率的影响研究--基于CLHLS队列数据的实证分析

文章基于 CLHLS 队列数据，运用统计分析及经验论证，解析出婚姻状态影响老年人死亡概率的作用机理，即在婚状态以其“保护效应”减小老年人患病的机率，进而减小其死亡概率；相反，不在婚状态的“损害效应”会增加老年人患病的机率，进而增加其死亡的概率。在所得结论基础上，为促进老年健康和应对养老挑战，针对老年人婚姻问题提出了相关政策建议。

The Effect of Marital Status on the Death Probability of the Elderly：An Empirical Analysis of CLHLS Queue Data

Based on the queue data of CLHLS , this paper explore the effecting mechanism of marital status on death probability of the elderly by using logistic regression analysis and empirical demonstration. It finds that the state of marriage boasts of a protection effect by which it can reduce probability of getting sick, thus reducing their death probability. On the contrary , the state of single , widow or widower has a kind of health-damage effect and can increase the risk of getting sick and further increase the elderly’s death probability. Thus the measures and policies to increase the elderly’s marriage can be of great significance in the elderly’s health and the coming pension challenge of rapid aging population.