珠三角城市空气质量的时空变化特征及影响因素

珠江三角洲是我国人口、经济高度聚集的区域之一,环境问题凸显,城市空气质量备受关注。基于2002~2011年珠三角9城市空气污染指数,运用空间统计分析方法描述珠三角城市空气质量的时空分布特征,采用格兰杰因果检验探究珠三角地区城市间空气质量溢出特征,并结合灰色关联分析珠三角空气质量的影响因素。结果显示:珠三角2002~2011年空气质量有所好转,具有显著的季节性特征,冬季污染较严重,夏季污染较轻;空间上呈现出空气污染以广州为中心向四周递减的分布模式,并且存在城市间空气质量的相互影响效应,位于珠三角中部的广州和佛山的空气质量对东、南部的深圳和珠海空气质量产生影响;工业SO2排放量、人均绿地面积和城镇房屋施工面积是影响珠三角城市空气质量的主要因素。

The Time-space Characteristics and Determinants of Urban Air Quality in Pearl River Delta

The Pearl River delta（PRD） is one of the most populous and prosperous regions in China,characterized by serious environment problems and its much concerned air quality.Based on the air pollution index（API） data of nine PRD cities between 2002 and 2011,and with spatial statistical analysis method,the time-space characteristics of air quality in this region are described.Granger Causality Test is also employed for probing into the overflow effect,while grey correlation for the air quality determinants.Results suggest that： air quality has been gradually improving from 2002 to 2011 with strong seasonality,i.e.,heavy pollution for winter and light for summer;the pollution level decreases progressively from Guangzhou being the highest to its surrounding regions and the APIs of neighboring cities are correlated;the major determinants of industrial air quality in PRD cities include the emission of industrial SO2,per capita green area and floor space under construction.