基于新改进GM(1,1)模型的中国企业债券融资发展预测

我国企业债券市场明显滞后于整个资本市场的发展,加快发展企业债券市场的呼声日高。但是去除企业债券发展的束缚是一个渐进的过程。在此背景下,本文对我国企业债券融资发展进行定量预测。考虑到影响我国企业债券发展的因素较多且不确定,笔者采用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型进行预测。GM(1,1)模型是有偏差的灰指数模型,其精度取决于背景值的构造形式和初始条件的选取。已有的研究文献均是从一个侧面单独改进GM(1,1)模型,这里,笔者提出一种同时优化背景值和初始条件的新GM(1,1)模型。笔者发现新优化GM(1,1)模型比单独优化背景值或单独优化初始条件有更高的模拟精度。在此基础上,利用新改进GM(1,1)模型对我国2010年之前的企业债券余额进行了预测。

Prediction to Corporate Bond Financing Based on New GM(1,1) in China

Enterprise bonds obviously lag far behind the whole capital markets in China.The voice of quickening development of enterprise bonds markets is more and more higher.But wiping off the bondage of administrative framework to enterprise bonds development will be a long-time process.In this background,the paper makes quantitative prediction to corporate bonds financing in China.Considering that factors which affect corporate bonds development are more and uncertain,the author predicts it with GM (1,1) model.GM (1,1) is a gray exponential model with distortions,its precision lies on conformation of backg round value and selection of original condition.In literature,GM(1,1) models were optimized,with one side,GM(1,1) models.Independent adoptions of optimizing background values and original conditions of GM(1,1) can,at a certain extent,improve the precision of the model.Based on the idea that we have a bove reasoned,it is produced that a new GM (1,1) model of integrated optimizing its background value and original condition.Through comparisons of simulation data,the author finds that new GM (1,1) model has a higher simulation precision.