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Optimal jury design for homogeneous juries with correlated votes
Authors:Serguei Kaniovski  Alexander Zaigraev
Institution:(1) Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat-Gan, 52900, Israel
Abstract:In a homogeneous jury, in which each vote is correct with the same probability, and each pair of votes correlates with the same correlation coefficient, there exists a correlation-robust voting quota, such that the probability of a correct verdict is independent of the correlation coefficient. For positive correlation, an increase in the correlation coefficient decreases the probability of a correct verdict for any voting rule below the correlation-robust quota, and increases that probability for any above the correlation-robust quota. The jury may be less competent under the correlation-robust rule than under simple majority rule and less competent under simple majority rule than a single juror alone. The jury is always less competent than a single juror under unanimity rule.
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