探究中国媒介制度变迁的演化逻辑——一种博弈论的视角

制度的形成是博弈的结果，博弈的均衡即表现为制度。媒介制度通常也是制度变迁主体之间博弈的产物。博弈方之间的力量对比，决定了制度均衡。不同利益团体间的博弈打破了媒介制度的均衡，引致了媒介制度变迁。从中国媒介制度变迁的历史维度来看的确如此，不同的博弈格局对应着不同的制度格局。在从近代以来开启的媒介制度变迁中，政府是制度博弈中的重要主体，当政府的力量十分强大时，媒介制度的演化路径是由政府掌控的，但当政府的力量面临挑战，媒介制度的演化一般会有一个充分的博弈过程，最终的制度安排一定体现了各方力量的对比。

Evolution Logic of Media System Changes in China:A Perspective of Game Theory

The formation of the system is the result of game, which is expressed as the equilibrium of game. Media system is usually the product of the game between different persons or cooperations who dominate the institutional change. The system equilibrium is determined by the game balance of powers between the parties. Because the game balance of media system is broken, the media system changes occur. From the historical dimension of media institutional change in China, we can find that different game patterns correspond to different system patterns. In the media system changes begun the modern times, government is the main participant. When the government＇s forces are very strong, the evolution path of the media system is controlled by the government, but when the government＇s power is challenged by other forces, the evolution of media system in general goes through a full process of bargaining. The final institutional arrangements of the media must reflect the balance of powers in different parties of the game.