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中国对外贸易对经济增长贡献度探索——基于VAR模型的分析
引用本文:张秋平,符建华,鞠寒. 中国对外贸易对经济增长贡献度探索——基于VAR模型的分析[J]. 西华大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2014, 33(2): 72-77
作者姓名:张秋平  符建华  鞠寒
作者单位:[1]哈尔滨商业大学经济学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150028 [2]大庆油田有限责任公司,黑龙江大庆163712
基金项目:基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(1CJL046).
摘    要:本文基于VAR模型对于进出口对经济增长的长期影响和短期影响进行了实证分析。Johansen协整检验的结果表明,从长期看出口对经济增长影响较大;脉冲响应分析的结果表明,对外贸易对经济增长的影响具有滞后性;方差分解的结果表明,进口对GDP的波动性影响较大。可见进出口对于经济增长都有贡献。所以,应实施有效的进口策略、促进贸易的平衡发展,进而保持经济的持续增长。  

关 键 词:对外贸易   经济增长   VAR模型   贡献  

Analysis of the Contribution of Foreign Trade to the Economic Growth of China on the Basis of VAR
ZHANG Qiu-ping,FU Jian-hua,JU Han. Analysis of the Contribution of Foreign Trade to the Economic Growth of China on the Basis of VAR[J]. Journal of Xihua University:Philosophy & Social Sciences, 2014, 33(2): 72-77
Authors:ZHANG Qiu-ping  FU Jian-hua  JU Han
Affiliation:1. School of Economics, Harbin University of Commerce,Harbin,Heilongjiang, 150028, China ;2. Daqing Oil Ltd. Co, Daqing ,Heilongjiang , 163712, China)
Abstract:The development of foreign is very important for the rapid growth of economy, and this paper will analyze the impacts given by the foreign trade to the growth of economy through establishing the VAR model. After learning about the relationship between Chinese foreign trade and economic growth, and then the contribution done by the Chinese foreign trade to the economic growth will be discussed deeply. On the basis of thus, some suggestions for the further development of Chinese foreign trade will be supplied, which will make much more contribution to the economic growth of China.
Keywords:foreign trade  economic growth  VAR model  contribution
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