人民币汇率变动对我国农产品国际贸易的影响机理

当前人民币汇率升值的压力很大,如果人民币汇率发生变动,其带来的各种不确定性因素将对我国农产品国际贸易产生影响,但这些影响又受到一定条件的制约。根据汇率变动影响国际贸易的一般规律,结合农产品的特性将发现,人民币汇率变动对我国农产品国际贸易的影响能够满足"马歇尔—勒纳"条件,并且根据"J曲线效应"理论发现,人民币汇率变动对我国农产品国际贸易的影响主要表现在:人民币贬值有利于扩大我国的出口,抑制进口,改善农产品贸易现状;人民币升值将导致出口减少,进口增加,恶化农产品贸易状况。同时,还应注意两个问题:一是"弹性"问题;二是"时滞"问题。

An Analysis about the Change of RMB Exchange Rate's Influential Mechanism on International Trade of China's Agricultural Products

There is big pressure for increasing the exchange rate of RMB. If it changes, which brings many kinds of uncertain factors will influence the international trade of our special products, Agricultural Products. But it is under some restrictions. This paper is on the basis of analysising the common principle of the change of exchange rate influence international trade; in connect with The Mashall-Lerner Condition Theory and J-Curve Effect Theory, discussing mainly the influence of the exchange rate of RMB to our country's Agricultural Products. We expound this from two aspects, its condition and its process, so we clear the inside relation of change of exchange rate of RMB influence our Agricultural Products' international trade.