东部地区内外就业格局演变研究

采用生物系统论研究法,建立中国地区劳动力流动模型,并基于1978-2008年的东部地区内部及中部、西部、东北地区劳动力就业数据,运用状态空间递归参数估计法,研究东部地区内外就业格局演变。结果发现：东部正遭遇＂就业难与招工荒＂同时并存的就业迷局,其根源在于正处于劳动力自然就业相对繁荣期（2009-2013年）与拥塞现象导致了就业难;东部及其外部地区的＂三极竞争,东北独大＂就业格局引发了招工荒;当拥塞现象到2018年解除时,东部将真正进入＂劳动力危机时代＂。最后就如何破解＂劳动力危机＂困局,提出了相应对策。

A Study of the Evolution of Employment Patterns Within and Outside in China Eastern Region

Adopting biological systems research methods,constructing China's regional labor flow model,using state-space recursive parameter method,this paper studies the evolution of employment patterns within and outside the eastern region.The result shows that the eastern region is encoun-tering an employment difficulty and job shortage puzzle,which results from the fact that the eastern region is in the period of natural labor employment boom(2009~2013) and congestion which led to employment difficulty,and the eas...