中日消耗系数变动趋势的比较研究

从世界各国的经济发展历程看 ,工业化进入快速发展阶段后 ,一个最突出的特征就是各产业部门中间需求与中间投入比重的大幅度上升。这是工业化时期支撑经济高速增长的一个重要原因。钱纳里在对多个国家工业化时期结构变化的研究表明 ,当人均国民收入由 140美元 (1970年美元 )上升到 2 10 0美元时 ,总产出占国民生产总值的比重增加 31个百分点 (增加值不变 ) ,主要是由中间消耗在国民生产总值中比重增加 32个百分点所致 ,而中间消耗比重的提高又主要是对工业制造业的中间消耗增加 2 9个百分点所造成的 ① 。可见中间需求的增加 ,尤其是对制造…

Comparative Research on Trends of the Consuming Coefficient, China vs. Japan

Industrialization is the most important Phase for each country in its economy development so far. The major character of Industrialization is the rise of intermediate input rate and intermediate demand rate, which means the expansion of the “intermediate output” scale. By comparing the trend of consuming coefficient of China industries with that of Japan, this article makes the following points: before its achievement of industrialization, both the intermediate input rate and intermediate demand rate of China will keep increasing for a long time. Hence it is possible for China to keep a relatively high growth rate of 7~8 percent in the next one or two decades.