Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode,wording, and opportunities to revise |
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| Institution: | 1. University of Leeds and Carnegie Mellon University, United Kingdom;2. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, United States;3. De Nederlandsche Bank (Dutch Central Bank), Netherlands;4. CentERdata, Netherlands;1. Environment for Development Center for Central America, CATIE, 7170 Turrialba, Costa Rica;2. Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, Vasagatan 1, PO Box 640, SE 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden;3. Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sweden;4. Duke University, Sanford School of Public Policy, Durham, NC 27708, USA;1. Humboldt University Berlin, Mohrenstrasse 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany;2. German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Mohrenstrasse 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany;3. Leibniz University Hannover, Germany;4. Research Center, Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Strasse 14, 60431 Frankfurt am Main, Germany;1. Department of Economics, Darla Moore School of Business, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, United States;2. School of Business, Georgia Gwinnett College, 1000 University Center Lane, Lawrenceville, GA 30043, United States;1. King’s College London, United Kingdom;2. Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London EC2R 8AH, United Kingdom |
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| Abstract: | Several national surveys aim to elicit consumers’ inflation expectations. Median expectations tend to track objective inflation estimates over time, although responses display large dispersion. Medians also tend to differ between surveys, possibly reflecting survey design differences. Using a nationally representative Dutch sample, we evaluate the importance of three survey design features in explaining observed differences: mode (face-to-face vs. web), question wording (‘prices in general’ vs. ‘inflation’), and the explicit opportunity to revise responses. We examine effects on item non-responses, revisions, reported inflation expectations and their deviation from the CPI inflation rate. We discuss implications of our findings for survey design. |
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| Keywords: | Consumer surveys Inflation expectations Mode effects Question wording E31 D84 2229 2260 3920 |
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