基于需求更新的民航收入管理动态存量控制模型

本文对民航收入管理存量控制研究中具有里程碑意义的EMSR(Expected Marginal Seat Revenue)模型进行了评述,分析其存在的缺陷,提出将销售过程中获取的最新销售信息与需求的历史先验分布相结合,运用二维正态分布下的贝叶斯模型对需求分布进行更新,并将综合考虑新的需求预测、No-Show和取消订票等因素得到的新的需求限制与座位总数C相比较,给出更为通用的、市场反应更为灵敏的民航收入管理动态存量控制模型。

The Dynamic Revenue Management Inventory Control Model with Demand Updating

Based upon analysis of the deficiency of EMSR(Expected Marginal Seat Revenue)model,the milestone of airline revenue management,the paper puts forward a new dynamic revenue management inventory control model,which is more general and more sensitive to the market.The paper,at the first place,combines the prior distributions of demand with the latest marketing information acquired in the selling process,then renews the distributions of demand with Bayesian model which obeying bivariate normal distribution,and takes into consideration such factors as the newest demand forecast,No-Show and order canceling,to draw out a fresh demand restriction,which then is compared with the total seats to achieve the final model.