风物长宜放眼量--论中国应有的外交哲学和世纪性大战略

21世纪前期,世界基本格局仍将是美国及其为首的西方发达国家共同体在世界政治、经济、军事以及价值规范与规则体系方面占有显著优势,而其他力量少有、甚或没有可能形成足够团结有力、足够持久紧张的制衡陈线,世界基本潮流则仍将由多极化、全球化、国家政治民主化和国际规范正义化构成,而后面这三大趋势与上述优势密切并联.在这样的时代大环境中,中国必须具备下述外交哲学和可以称为"搭车"和"超越"的世纪性大战略中国既应当是世界政治中的一个"正常"国家,又应当是其中的一个创新型国家;顺应世界潮流,广泛参与国际体制,尽可能迅速学会先进的技术、管理、政治运作、思想文化和国际行为方式;在有所防范、有所斗争的同时,与美国及其西方共同体形成总的协调关系,与之发展出足够多的共同利益、共同规则和共同运作机制;积极参与创设、培育和形成国际安全体制,尤其是东亚区域和次区域安全体制,以便使一个强大起来的中国能够是更加安全的中国.美国方面存在的有助于推动它同崛起的中国长期协调共处的因素,连同世界政治中一个头等重要的事态--大国间全面战争已很少可能甚或极难想象,使中国能够实行这样的外交哲学和世纪性大战略并取得成功.中国需要具有宏大的远见,坚韧不拔地朝着基本安全、基本富裕和世界强国目标迈进.

To have a long vision--Diplomatic philosophy on external affairs and secular grand strategy for China in the early 21st century

The world power structure in the early decades of the 21st century will continue to be that of the United States and the U.S.-led community of the Western advanced nations. They will still hold preponderance in world politics, economy, military, and the normative systems of values and international rules. Meanwhile, the fundamental trends will be the multi-polarization, globalization, democratization, and changing international law and ethics toward greater justice. In this situation, China will take the following philosophy on external affairs and secular grand strategy of "bandwagoning" and "transcendency": to be both a "normal" and an innovative state in world politics, to conform with the world essential trends and participate widely in international regimes, while adopting more advanced technology, management, political operation, ideas and culture, and international conduct; also to form a general relation of accommodation with the United States and the community of the Western nations developing common interests, values, rules and institutions with them, while taking precautionary measures and engaging in necessary struggles, to engage actively in the creation, cultivation, and development of international security regimes, especially regional and sub-regional ones in East Asia, in order to enable a stronger China to be a safer country.