Prediction of future low levels of sickness absence among young persons sick listed with back, neck, or shoulder diagnoses

In recent years sickness absence has increased in most Western countries. Risk factors for sickness absence and disability pension have been emphasised in studies, while focus on factors predicting low sickness absence is very rare. This paper is an attempt to apply such a perspective in an 11-year prospective cohort study of young persons n = 213) who in 1985 were sick listed > or = 28 days with back, neck, or shoulder diagnoses. Having had no sick-leave spells > 14 days in 1992-1996 was used as the outcome measure. Sixty-nine persons (34%) had no such spells, with an unexpected similar proportion of men and women. Data on prior sick leave and demographic variables were analysed using univariate and multiple logistic regression. Factors that predicted low sickness absence were having prior low sickness absence, being a white-collar worker, and being married. We concluded that individuals with a history of low sickness absence have an increased odds for remaining in the work force after a single long sick-leave spell, and might need less attention in rehabilitation compared to persons with a history of high sickness absence. Focusing on low sickness absence led to different results than those discussed in previous studies on risk factors for disability pension.