空间溢出视角下的对外直接投资与母国产业结构升级

本文基于改进的经典Chenery“标准结构”模型，利用2003-2015年中国对外直接投资以及产业发展的省际面板数据，首先采用Geweke因果关系检验分析了对外直接投资与母国产业结构升级的互为因果关系，再运用动态空间计量方法实证检验了对外直接投资对母国产业结构升级的影响。实证结果显示：对外直接投资不仅对本地区的产业结构升级有促进作用，而且对其邻近地区的产业结构升级也有促进作用；同时还发现产业结构升级存在显著的时间滞后效应，即滞后一期的产业结构调整促进了现期产业结构升级；进一步发现对外直接投资对国内产业结构升级的影响表现出明显的地区差异，仅仅在东部地区对外直接投资对产业结构升级有显著的促进作用，而在中西部地区并未发现对外直接投资对产业结构升级有促进作用。

Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Upgrading in the Home Country —from Spatial Spillover Perspective

Based on the revised Chenery “standard structure” model, this paper uses China’s provincial panel data of OFDI and industrial upgrading from 2003 to 2015 to empirically test the effect of outward foreign direct investment on China's industrial structure upgrading. Firstly, it uses Geweke causality test to analyze the relationship between outward foreign direct investment and industrial structure upgrading, The empirical results show that outward foreign direct investment not only promotes the upgrading of industrial structure in the local regions, but also that in neighboring regions. Obvious lag effect is also found in the upgrading of industrial structure. Industrial restructuring in the lag period benefited the upgrading of industrial structure in the current period. Further research finds that the China's outward foreign direct investment in promoting the upgrading of domestic industrial structure shows significant regional difference. Only the results exit in eastern regions, but it is not significant in the central and western regions.