危机传递、逆全球化与世界经济周期联动性

本文构造世界经济周期联动性指数,从区域和个体角度分析了经济危机传递路径,探讨近年来经济周期联动性新的变化及其影响因素。研究发现:20世纪90年代中期以来,全球经济周期联动性经历了“倒U型”的发展过程。世界经济周期联动性并不是风险的传递载体,风险的传递链条集中在低联动性区域以及低联动性经济体。中国无论是在全样本还是危机中,均处于传染链条之外,相对独立。危机后,非关税壁垒和关税壁垒是降低世界经济周期联动性的主要原因。此外,贫富差距的扩大、贸易增长率放缓也对世界经济周期联动性具有显著负向影响。结果表明:积极推动世界经济一体化,增强经济体之间的经济联系是避免危机在局部扩大和深入发展的重要途径。维持稳定有序的世界经济环境、形成非关税的贸易争端解决协商机制、促进收入分配公平是推进经济一体化的核心动力。

Crisis Transmission,Anti-globalization and EconomicCycle Synchronization

This paper develops an economic cycle synchronic index (ESI）, analyzes the transmission path of economic crisis from regional and individual perspectives, and discusses the new trend of economic cycle synchronization in recent years and the possible influential factors. The research shows that the economic cycle synchronization has experienced a process with inverted U-shape since the mid-1990s. The economic cycle synchronization is not a risk carrier; instead, the chains of risk transmission are more linked to the low ESI regions and economies. It is worth mentioning that China is rather independent and shows no link with risk chains neither in the whole sample nor in the crisis period. Non-tariff barriers and tariff barriers have become the main factors restraining the reviving of ESI after the crisis. Besides, the larger gap in wealth and lower trade growth show negative effect on ESI significantly. These findings suggest that promoting the integration of world economy and enhancing the economic relations between the economies is actually an important approach to avoid crisis diffusion and development locally. A stable world economic environment, non-tariff negotiation mechanism for trade disputes and efforts to reduce income inequality are the key factors to promote economic integration.