考虑重复购买因素的品牌竞争对新产品扩散的影响研究——基于小世界网络的仿真环境

在对品牌竞争影响要素分析的基础上，考虑重复购买在新产品扩散过程中的调节效应，构建以消费者微观采纳机制为核心的新产品扩散的阈值模型，在小世界网络仿真情境下，运用多智能仿真方法对品牌竞争与新产品扩散之间的影响关系进行分析，研究结果表明：转换成本对新产品扩散的速度和深度的影响存在一定的"条件区域"，在该区域之外两者不存在显著的影响关系；进入时间与两种竞争性品牌的扩散速度存在一致的负向的影响关系，而对两种竞争性品牌的扩散深度的影响方向则相反；在此过程中，重复购买系数起着一定的调节效应，会在一定程度上放大或缩小转换成本及进入时间对新产品扩散的影响效应。通过本文的研究，不仅可以进一步丰富和完善竞争性产品创新扩散的相关理论，也可以为企业的新产品推广实践提供决策支持。

The Analysis of Affect Mechanism of The Brand Competition to New Products Diffusion with Repeat Purchase-Based on The Small-World Network

The previous literatures mainly focus on the monopoly market as the context of new product diffusion, but in real world, new product diffusion in the competitive market is more prevalent and complex. In the context of competitive market, consumers need to compare the adoption utility of new product to the competitive products, then to determine which product to adopt. In this process, competitive factors, such as market entry time and switching cost, play a key role. In order to analyze the influence of competitive factors on new product diffusion, a brand competition model of new product diffusion based on the threshold theory is built considering the real situation about repeat purchase, and the hypothesis about "monopoly market" and "one-time purchase" derived from traditional macro diffusion model is relaxed to "competitive market" and "repeat purchase". Then the interaction is simuated between brand competition and new product diffusion in small-world network applying a multi-agent modeling method. The results show that the impact of switching costs on the speed and depth of the new product diffusion has an "criteria area", in which there is no significant interaction between them. There is an negative interaction between entry time and the speed of new product diffusion, but the result is the opposite in the depth. The factor of repeat purchase can amplify or reduce the interaction between switching costs, entry time and new product diffusion. The contribution of this paper is not only to enrich and improve the theory of competitive product diffusion,but also to provide the proposals on promoting the new product diffusion for enterprise.