中国各地区人口特征和房价波动的动态关系

本文分析了人口特征、金融市场和房地产市场三者的相互影响机制,基于2002-2015年我国大陆31个省、自治区、直辖市的年度数据,建立了面板平滑转换模型,将人口密度作为异质变量构建计量模型,研究房地产市场的非线性影响因素,及各地区人口特征对房价波动的影响机制。实证结果表明:人均GDP对房价的影响随人口密度增加呈现非线性提升效应;人口密度小的地区,M2存量对房地产价格有正向影响;当人口密度较小时,地区中老年人口占比越大,房价下降的可能越大,反映了房地产"年轻人推动房价上涨"的现象,但是极少人口密度比较大城市例外。

A Dynamic Relationship between Chinese Provincial Demographic Characteristics and Housing Price Volatility

This paper builds up a panel smoothing transition model based on the study of interactive mechanism among the demographic characteristics, financial market and real estate market and the 2002-2015 annual data from 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in mainland China. Furthermore, taking the population density as a heterogeneous variable, a econometric model is constructed to study the non-linear factors affecting the real estate market, and the impacts of the Chinese provincial demographic characteristics on the housing price volatility. The results show that as the population density increases, the impact of per capita GDP on housing prices exposes an escalating effect in a non-linear way. In a sparsely populated city, a real estate price increase looks more like money-driven than that in a densely populated city. In a sparsely populated area, the more the aged and middle aged people, the more the housing price is inclined to edge down, reflecting the factual tendency of real estate prices driven by the young generation, but being an exception for a few most populated metropolitan cities.