价值链嵌入与经济周期联动——增加值的视角

本文利用1997年、2002年、2007年和2012年中国区域间投入产出表，从增加值的视角研究了价值链嵌入与经济周期联动性的关系。不同于存在重复统计问题的现行总值核算方法，本文基于区域流出的增加值完全分解框架，重新构建了增加值核算下的双边贸易强度和价值链贸易强度。实证结果表明双边贸易强度和价值链贸易强度分别对经济周期联动性有显著的正向和负向影响，验证了Frankel-Rose效应的存在和国内区域分工的替代性特征；从“地理偏好”角度，本文发现增加值供求的地域特征会强化价值链嵌入与经济周期联动性的关系；进一步，“第三方效应”分析表明双边贸易强度很大程度经由国内其他区域传导经济波动，而价值链贸易强度与经济周期联动性的关系则基本不受第三方效应的影响。

Value Chain Embedding and Business Cycle Co-movement: A Value Added Perspective

Based on China Inter-Regional Input-Output Tables of 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012, this paper investigates the relationship between value chain embedding and business cycle co-movement from the perspective of value added. Different from the gross value accounting method with problems of double accounting, this paper uses value added accounting method in the framework of complete value added decomposition of regional outflow to re-construct bilateral trade intensity and value chain trade intensity. Regression results show that bilateral trade intensity and value chain trade intensity have significantly positive and negative effects on business cycle co-movement, respectively, suggesting that Frankel-Rose effect and substitution effect of domestic regional division exist. From the perspective of geographic preference, geographic characteristics of supply-demand linkages in value added will strengthen the relationship between value added embedding and business cycle co-movement. Further, third party effect analysis indicates that bilateral trade intensity propagates fluctuation via other regions of China to a large degree, while the relationship between value chain intensity and business cycle co-movement can hardly be affected by third party effect.