基于需求预测和模块化的应急物资库库联动方法研究

本文从应急物资预储体系整体优化的角度出发，研究应急物资在国家库之间联动的方法。综合考虑了物资的需求不确定性、模块化和时效性等性质，以应急物资预储调整方案总成本最小为目标，构建一个基于机会约束规划的线性库库联动模型。最后，我们将该方法应用到我国20个中央级应急物资储备库进行的物资预储水平模拟调整中，在相同的物资保障水平下较大幅度的降低了预储调整的成本。

Research on the Linkage Method of Relief Materials Warehouse Based on Demand Forecasting and Modularization

The management of relief materials is an interesting research area of the relief management. However, most of existing researches relative to relief materials management focus on the state of inventory level of relief materials and the distribution and supplement of materials, but without respect to the modularity and timeliness of materials. That is, the existing researches maybe unserviceable for modular relief materials management, and cannot improve the value-in-use of materials. Therefore, in this paper, an alternative chance-constrained programming is proposed for the redistribution and supplement of relief materials which can be transformed as a linear programming, under the assumption that the distribution of the demand at each warehouse is known. The objective of the proposed model is minimize the cost of redistribution and supplement of relief materials, and the mainly constraint is guarantee the materials demand can be satisfied under a certain stated probability. Finally,the proposed method is applied to the prestore adjustment of 20 National relief material warehouses of China, and the results show that the proposed method can greatly reduced the cost of prestore adjustment under the same level of material support.