突发性产出下的供应链协调应对策略

针对突发事件影响制造商产出的情形,研究了收益共享契约协调应对突发产出事件的有效性问题。首先论证了无突发产出事件时收益共享契约协调供应链的有效性,进而分析了突发产出事件对供应链最优生产计划、定价决策、绩效和协调性的影响。然后,建立了突发产出事件下的收益共享契约协调应对模型,并对原收益共享契约和修正后的收益共享契约进行了对比分析。研究表明:当突发产出事件导致产出扰动范围较小时,供应链的最优生产计划、批发价格和零售价格几乎保持不变,仅当产出扰动范围较大时,三者才需要同时调整,此时原供应链的协调性也将被打破,而修正后的收益共享契约具有良好的抗突发性。最后,通过算例进行了验证。

Supply Chain Coordination Strategy Following Output Disruption

The sudden occurrence of uncertainty-creating factors such as natural disasters and public social events may have an impact on supply (production). For example, in recent years, the supply (production) of products has often been affected by hurricanes and strikes. The occurrence of these emergencies means the original optimal plan or mode of operation can no longer be carried out smoothly, and the coordinated supply chain is no longer coordinated, thus causing large losses to enterprises. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study how the coordinated supply chain system deals with emergencies.In this paper, a three-level supply chain system consisting of a manufacturer, a distributor and a retailer is considered where the manufacturer's output is random. At the same time, it is assumed that retail price depends on random output. It is studied that how a revenue sharing contract deals with disruptions to output caused by emergencies.The decentralized decision-making model and centralized decision-making model are analyzed in the case of no emergencies and construct a revenue sharing contract model (original revenue sharing contract) to coordinate the supply chain. Second, it is assumed that emergencies will lead to changes in the distribution of random output. The optimal adjustment strategy is put forward for production following emergencies, a revised revenue sharing contract model is established, and the original revenue sharing contract and the revised revenue sharing contract model are compared. Finally, the impact of emergencies on optimal production planning, pricing decisions, profit and the coordination of the supply chain are analyzed.Through the analysis of theoretical and numerical examples, the following conclusions are drawn:(1) After the emergency, the optimal production input quantity for a supply chain is not necessarily related to the output scale but depends on the new expected output and the output volatility. (2) When the range of output disruption due to emergencies is small, the optimal production plan and wholesale price of supply chain remain unchanged, and the retail price changes small. However, the coordination of the supply chain under the original revenue sharing contract will be broken, and the revised revenue sharing contract can better withstand emergencies. (3) When emergencies lead to a large range of output disruption, the optimal production input quantity of the supply chain is negatively related to the expected output and output volatility, and the optimal retail price is also negatively related to the expected output, while the optimal retail price is positively related to output volatility. (4) When emergencies lead to a large range of output disruption, the optimal wholesale price for distributor and retailer is negatively related to expected output and first decreases and then increases with the increase in output volatility. (5) Following an emergency, whether under the original revenue sharing contract or a revised revenue sharing contract, the profit of the supply chain system increases with the increase of expected output but decreases with the increase of output volatility. This study provides a basic method to mitigate the impact of emergencies on product supply (production) and therefore enriches current theoretical knowledge of supply chain emergency management while also providing some theoretical guidance for supply chain managers regarding the handling of emergencies.