管控策略对关联企业网络稳定状态的影响——基于关联信用风险传染的视角

随着经济全球化和金融市场的快速发展，关联信用风险在关联企业之间普遍存在，寻找有效的风险管控策略成为关联信用风险管理的热点和难点问题。本文结合传染病模型和复杂网络理论，探讨了管控策略对关联信用风险传染及关联企业网络稳定的影响。研究表明：关联信用风险的传染导致关联企业网络最终趋于不同的稳定状态，当关联企业网络处于有风险稳定时，通过管控策略可以使其达到无风险稳定；当关联企业网络处于无风险稳定时，通过管控策略可以缩短网络达到无风险稳定的时间，且能降低关联信用风险传染过程中感染企业出现的峰值；在一定条件下，救治策略相较于免疫策略对关联信用风险的管控有更高的效率。

The Influence of Control Strategy on the Stability of Affiliated Enterprises Network -Based on the Perspective of Associated Credit Contagion

With the rapid development of economic and financial market, the associated credit risk is widespread in the affiliated enterprises. Associated credit risk control strategy has been widely considered as a hot but difficult problem in the credit risk management. Based on the epidemic model and complex network theory, the influence of control strategy on the associated credit contagion and the stability of the affiliated enterprise network are discussed. The results show that the control strategy is an important factor affecting the stability of the affiliated enterprise network. Simulation analysis illustrates:First, when the network of affiliated enterprise is risk stable, control strategy is proved to be valid in making the network achieve risk-free stability; Second, when the network of affiliated enterprise is in risk-free stable situation, the use of control strategy can help to shorten the time to be in risk-free stable, and can also reduce the peak value of infected enterprises in the process of credit contagion; Finally, under certain conditions, the treatment strategy is shown to be more effective than the immunization strategy in the control of the associated credit risk. The study of this paper has theoretical and practical significance to prevent and control the contagion of associated credit risk in the affiliated enterprise network.