供应商产出随机与供应中断下的双源采购决策

研究在需求与供应不确定条件下，一个制造商向两个存在产出随机和供应中断可能性的供应商采购零部件时的最优决策问题。论文分别针对两种情况：（1）只考虑供应商产出随机，（2）同时考虑供应商产出随机与供应中断可能性，建立了两种情况下制造商与两个供应商之间的博弈模型，证明了在两种情况下，制造商均存在最优订货量、供应商存在最优生产量使自身利润最优。研究发现，供应商产出稳定性的改善（即产出随机性降低）不仅可以使自身获得更大的利润，也使制造商获得更大的利润。供应商最优生产量随着自身产出随机性降低先增后减。同时，供应商供应中断可能性的降低会为自身带来更大的收益，也为制造商带来更大的收益。

Optimal Dual-sourcing Procurement Decisions with Suppliers' Random Yield and Disruptions

Since the uncertainty of production condition and other external factors in production process, suppliers' yield are random; meanwhile, unpredicted disruption events during delivery also occasionally take place. In order to reduce these two types of supply risks during procurement, many companies adopt dual-sourcing strategy. The optimal decision of dual sourcing procurement with suppliers' random yield and disruption is studied in this paper. A model is proposed in which one manufacturer order from two suppliers which have random yield and supply disruption with the uncertain demand. By solving the model, the optimal order quantity for the manufacturer and the optimal production quantities for suppliers in two situations is obtained:(1) the suppliers have only random yield without disruption, and (2) the suppliers have random yield and disruptions. It is found that, the reduction of the yield random not only increases the suppliers' profit but also improves the manufacturer's profit. Therefore, the manufacturer needs help the suppliers to improve the yield. The optimal production quantities for suppliers increase then decrease as the improvement in own yield, but the optimal production quantities for suppliers decrease as the improvement of anther supplier's yield. If one supplier's yield can improve to a certain extent, the manufacturer can just order from one rather than from two. The reduction of suppliers' disruption can help the manufacturer obtain higher order quantity. If one supplier's supply disruption reduces, the manufacturer will order more from this supplier and orders less from the another supplier. Dual-sourcing procurement is a temporary strategy used by the manufacturer in responding to the risk of random yield and disruption. As the risk reduces, the manufacturer can purchase from only one supplier.