从“投资拉动”到“创新驱动”：经济增长方式转变的内生动力和转型冲击

本文将新古典模型和内生增长模型归置于不同发展阶段，从而建立了从投资拉动到创新驱动的复合增长模型。在经济转型过程中，资本向新兴创新行业转移，而产品创新也加深了市场垄断程度，由此带来了“转型冲击”，而数值模拟的结果显示，转型后的经济增速会出现短期负面冲击，在长期则显示持续的反弹。利用国际投入产出数据，发现中国目前投资拉动的现象比较明显，经济整体上还未进入创新驱动阶段。基于动态面板模型和面板向量自回归模型，发现创新引致了我国产出增长率的短期下滑，但长期则有利于其持续提升，从而验证了理论模型。

From Investment-driven to Innovation-driven: the Endogenous Driving Force and Transition Shock of Economic Growth Transformation

This paper constructs compound economic growth models driven by investment to innovation in different development stages placed with neoclassical and endogenous growth models. In the economic transition process, the capital shifts to emerging and innovative industries and the innovation of products intensifies the market monopoly, inducing a “transition shock”. However, a numerical simulation shows that the post-transition economic growth will produce a short-term negative shock and a long-term sustaining rally. Using the data on China's sub-industry provided by WIOD, it is found that China’s economy obviously driven by investment has not entered into the innovation-driven stage yet on a whole. Based on the dynamic panel data and panel vector auto-regression models, the results show that the innovation in China leads to a short-term decline in output growth rate, but it is positive to the escalation of long-term expansion, which corroborates these theoretical models.