基于产品生命周期的多阶段剩余收益项目决策模型

剩余收益模型（Residual Income Model，RIM）是评估公司权益价值的经典模型，特别地，奥尔森系列剩余收益模型由于可以利用历史财务与会计数据而得到广泛运用。本文在一般剩余收益模型的基础上，运用规范研究、逻辑推理等方法，基于产品生命周期理论，即项目处于产品生命周期的不同阶段时，其净资产收益率不同，在增长期的净资产收益率持续上升，衰退期的净资产收益率持续下降，而成熟期的净资产收益率则围绕行业平均水平波动，从理论上就项目投资价值的评估构建了多阶段剩余收益项目决策模型，并就所构建的多阶段剩余收益项目决策模型进行参数赋值分析。研究结果表明该新构建的决策模型具有较好的理论和运用价值，可以作为一种有效的项目投资决策模型。本文的研究一是拓展了剩余收益模型的应用，从主要用于对公司权益价值的估值拓展至对项目投资决策的评估；二是有利于寻求项目投资决策的价值最大化。

Project Decision Model of Multi-stage Residual Income Based on Product Life Cycle

Residual Income Model (RIM) is one of classic models that applied in evaluating the value of companies' equity. Specially, Ohlson RIM is popular model in the period of finance and accounting since it adopts history accounting data. Following the logic of deductive reasoning and normative analysis, a new investment decision model is built based on the general residual income model under the assumption that return on equity (ROE) changes in different period of product life cycle. Different period of product life cycle has different characteristic of development in ROE, namely, ROE increases in growth period and decreases in decline period while ROE keeps industry average in mature period of product life cycle. Then, empirical data which assigned differently to each parameter was used to test the feasibility of this model. The result shows that the new investment decision model is applicable for making investment decisions in practice and has made several theoretical contributions. Firstly, the application of RIM is expanded from evaluating company's equity to the application in the assessment of investment decision. Secondly, the infinite problem of RIM is resolved and finally, it could be used to find the maximum value of investment decisions.